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Coronavirus

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Hopalong:
Another very helpful chart, much appreciated when gov'ts have such difficulty conveying decision criteria with consistency!

http://www.ezekielemanuel.com/writing/all-articles/2020/06/30/covid-19-activity-risk-levels?fbclid=IwAR2oNoUnjxrHjC1jrWUUYaBybVpYK4cOJuzLBEchi6PtIv4LpsgWxOSmx4o

Twoapenny:
That is handy, Hops, we can easily stick to green activities so that's good :)

Things here don't make sense.  We've got (apparently) rising numbers in 108 places across England, with one country back in total lockdown and six pubs closed since Saturday for deep cleaning after someone tested positive in each one.  We also had today one of the lowest death counts we've had so far and a lower number of diagnosed cases as well.  It just doesn't make sense to me.

Hopalong:
I know. For the average-educated person, the numbers can't be woven. Even for the above-average, highly logical person like you, they still can't be woven. I think the only thing we can weave is the covering of our own common sense, and reasonable responses to evidence we are seeing/hearing from scientists.

It's very weird to feel we're on our own in decision making. But that's one reason I so liked that chart. It's concrete and pragmatic. Doesn't solve the long-term worries but certainly makes it easier to negotiate the next day/week/month with some of the best info (summarized) I've seen.

I'm just not trying to make sense of individual or anecdotal reports, because it's a novel virus that's caught both our governments flat-footed, and I frankly think informed citizens like yourself, or others who think and read outside politics, are among the best prepared. We can just face the facts we DO have, and make our best decisions. Our governments will keep parsing and explaining several beats behind the emergency, imo, so our best security is really from trusting our own good minds.

hugs
Hops

Twoapenny:
I think you're right, Hopsie.  Son and I are lucky that we can basically sit this out - although oddly I feel guilty about that.  Grateful as well, but I feel bad for others who can't.  It is a little tricky because the news reports are all about things opening up again - son reads all of that.  I still don't feel it's safe but I don't want to labour the point with him that I think the news is inaccurate (because he's taking so much pleasure from the positive statements).  So I'm just fibbing a bit or avoiding the issue, which I don't like to do.  But I suppose it's needs must at the moment.  I just notice contradictions when I read them and I like things to balance properly.  Lol xx

Twoapenny:
A team of science people from Oxford have released a paper (not peer reviewed yet) stating that they think T cells may be playing a role in some people having better immunity to Covid (asymptomatic, mild cases, severe cases but recovering well) and that herd immunity may be possible with 20% of the population having immunity.  There is a cancer doctor in the UK who has been saying all the way through this that he thinks T cells may play a part.  He's also been found to falsely link himself to a University in the past and there was something shady about a paper he published at one time, I think.  It's very difficult; people can be dishonest and still be good at their jobs, but it means that it's difficult to trust their opinion or point of view.

I'm personally finding the fact that papers can publish information that hasn't been proved one way or the other (and I know this is happening globally; little bits of information from various studies, much of it not formalised) really disconcerting.  The opinion from many has been that herd immunity may not be achievable anyway, because the anti-bodies don't seem to linger for long.  80% was also touted as the magic number needed at the beginning as well.  People are confused and fed up with being confused, I think.  We are in a bizarre situation here where people can go to the pub and meet with strangers but are still not supposed to just be visiting friends and family in their homes (you can do it in a bubble if both households aren't going anywhere else but as almost everyone is at the very least going to the supermarket that makes it virtually impossible).  Most people I know are listening to the advice coming from Scotland rather than from the English PM.  Sturgeon has done a much better job of handling this and their death rate has been zero for a week now, I think.

I did read that one of the big hospitals in our county hasn't had a Covid death for a fortnight now.  It should cheer me but my immediate thought was to wonder whether they're just sending them somewhere else or leaving them to die in care homes.  I feel sad that I can't trust any of the information given out now.

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