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Coronavirus

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Twoapenny:
Thank you both.  I just feel tired at having to manage the extra risk constantly, and having to judge which is the bigger risk - catching something or mostly staying home.  As I understand it here (Hopsie, you can jump in if I've got any of this wrong, you understand all of this better than I do) is that Astra Zeneca, which is what son and I have both had, gives approx 60% to 90% protection against hospitalisation depending on which report you read.  90% makes me feel pretty safe, 60% is only a bit better than 50/50 and I'm not keen on that.  I think, if I've understood it correctly, that high vaccination is needed to stop new mutations can just get rid of it overall, because the vaccine response weakens the virus and makes it (a) die out and (b) stop changing into new mutations.  Is that right?  And as I understand it this needs to be global, because people will pick it up in other countries and keep spreading it around otherwise.  I'm concerned that numbers are rising so fast.  Even with a lower death rate, the hospitals can't manage their normal workload and a highly infectious virus and there are already long waiting lists because they've had to stop so many other treatments and surgeries while all of this is going on.  Everyone's sick of all of it, no-one wants to lock down again and I can understand that.  So many businesses have gone under.  I'm doing the same as you, Hopsie, we're only indoors for cinema and library, both of which are easy to keep distance from people (plus masks), shops are for essentials only, I go as early in the day as possible and grab what I need and go, ditto the bus.  It's easier being outside at the mo as it's summer so I'm really hoping they've got on top of it before winter sets in again.

Hopalong:
I don't understand how mutations work, but think you've got it right: "high vaccination is needed, etc..." That's what herd immunity would be, I believe.
This comparison includes AstraZeneca but does not include the Delta variant.
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison

Oxford-AstraZeneca

This vaccine, which is currently being distributed in the United Kingdom and other countries, is distinguished from some of its competitors by its lower cost—it’s cheaper to make per dose, and it can be stored, transported, and handled in normal refrigeration for at least six months. Some countries temporarily suspended use of this vaccine in March after a small number of recipients developed blood clots. In April, a European Medicines Agency (EMA) safety committee concluded "unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects" that could occur within two weeks of receiving the vaccine. While the U.K. called for further investigation, EMA regulators stressed that the benefits of the vaccine still outweigh the risks.

Status: Not available in the U.S., authorized for use in the European Union (under the name Vaxzevria).

Recommended for: Adults 18 and older

Dosage: Two doses, four to 12 weeks apart

Common side effects: Tenderness, pain, warmth, redness, itching, swelling or bruising at the injection site, all of which generally resolve within a day or two.

How it works: Similar to the Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, this is a carrier vaccine, made from a modified version of a harmless adenovirus. The final product contains the spike protein found in SARS-CoV-2. When that protein reaches the body’s cells, the immune system mounts a defense, creating antibodies and memory cells to protect against an actual SARS-Cov2 infection.

How well it works: AstraZeneca updated its data analysis of its phase 3 trials in March, showing its vaccine to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease 15 days or more after receiving the two doses, and 100% against severe disease. The company also said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing COVID-19 in people over 65. The company’s update came a few days after the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) expressed concern over new data AstraZeneca had submitted in advance of requesting an EUA from the FDA. The NIAID said that data may have included outdated information, which would make its efficacy data incomplete. 

How well it works on virus mutations: So far it seems to work better against Alpha variant than the Beta variant. A paper in early February (not yet peer-reviewed) cited 74.6% efficacy against the Alpha variant. However, the vaccine did not protect as well against mild and moderate cases in people infected with the Beta variant. Therefore, South Africa halted its rollout while scientists continue to study whether the vaccine can prevent severe illness and death in people infected with this variant.

Hopalong:
Given my age and conditioning, and the Delta variant building, I'm going to maintain public masking, period. And likely continue to have groceries delivered. It's just not more important to me to do "normal" than it is to skip getting infected entirely.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/the-covid-delta-variant-how-effective-are-the-vaccines

Hopalong:
Very clear, and very sad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/20/us-coronavirus-infection-rate-fall-2021/

Twoapenny:
Well the most recent report here is suggesting that the vaccines are 95% effective against death with regard to the Delta variant, which is good news.  Local cases have quadrupled in the last two weeks, but there hasn't been a recorded death here for a month (in our area).  Nationally, infections are increasing daily but, so far, hospitals aren't being swamped with Covid cases and the death rate is remaining relatively low.  I guess the best we can hope for is fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths, given that it doesn't seem to be possible to stop it spreading altogether xx

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