Voicelessness and Emotional Survival > Voicelessness and Emotional Survival Message Board
summer stuff
sKePTiKal:
Well, I started tracking this storm all day long a few days ago. Of course, I've done that for decades now... ever since Isabel hit OBX two days before our scheduled vacation check-in. I've been alternating between anxiety with bursts of focused work and just sitting being mesmerized. Fortunately I am only halfway through an epic 10 book science/fantasy saga.
As of 5 am's NHC forecast track, the storm is going to take a LEFT turn, instead of a right some time this weekend. It's slowed down a bit on forward motion. After all the excess rain we've had this summer, I was more concerned about getting flooded in here, than anything else. And Hol hasn't even left Portland yet; departure scheduled today/tomorrow... and then it's going to take her over a week to get back; best estimate. I did NOT want her trying to drive home into a storm like that, up here. It's bad; I did it when hurricane Fran came up the mountains and did not make it home that day... and then I had to wade a creek & walk in... only to find half our orchard gone and no power for a week.
Do yourself a favor Hops. STOP watching the tv weather; listening to radio reports. The only thing "biblical, historic & catastrophic" is the amount of fear-mongering they're indulging in. They do this with EVERY storm. This storm is going to be bad enough with all the rain & some typical TS wind inland; you don't live near a stream or river, in an area that's likely to flood. The tree IS a rational fear and I've been cutting back trees around the house since I've been here. Sleep somewhere else in the house, if the rain gets bad & wind seems bad.
That said, the storm has (for the moment) turned away from us. I don't expect anything worse than I've been through all summer up here. Right now. I've had to remind people that this new computer model track just popped up between the 11 pm update and 5 am this morning. It can change AGAIN, just as quickly. So I'm not celebrating - yet.
Your city sits in a valley between mountains that will break up the force of the wind. The wind will tend to spiral and come from a lot of directions, instead of being predominanty from a single direction - as it would in flat terrain with strong outer bands. Another plus, in your favor against the tree.
And while lighter will be a lot closer to the effects - as things stand as of this latest update - she'll have less to worry about too. If my weather forecasts had been more accurate this summer, I'd be completely relieved. However, too many inaccurate forecasts - even for the next day - have me keeping an eye on the storm and continuing doing what I need to do around here, just in case.
The other thing that has me continuing on with work, is that my last storm 2 yrs ago - Matthew - did not act at all as predicted. The national hurricane center is my main source of data on these storms (no drama or hype) and their forecasts were wrong all the way till it went out to sea. It was a cat 1 when it hit OBX, and it was supposed to a TS that went out to sea in S. Carolina; Wilmington area. That storm delayed my move up here by 2 weeks.
---------------
My local radio guy is just now doing an update for our area on the storm. Rain starts Friday; and he's saying "breezy conditions rather than windy" - about 20 mph - but it will rain for 3-4 days. AS the TRACK STANDS NOW.
He also mentioned the various steering weather features that vary in intensity/timing that make it just too hard right now to predict the track. Face it; no one knows for 100% sure. Yesterday's track had both you & I dealing with a mess Hops - but not experiencing even tropical storm conditions - despite the exaggerated claims of the doomsayers. Our power companies and emergency mgmt guys are still planning to be ready - just in case.
And that's what I'm doing.
Hopalong:
Hi Amber,
Haven't been watching any hysterical TV weather at all (I get my updates online) but do respect the potential power of a hurricane. Seems the danger has dimmed now that the direction's changed, but that could change again.
Still wondering...any uphill trees a danger to your house? HOPE NOT! I'm sure you have your own safety plan in place...I'll be sending good vibes.
Lighter, thanks...yes, it really did feel better once I connected with my neighbors. We're still unsure about a couple of sketchy trees (them too) but there for each other. I think the ground saturation will be a bigger issue than wind.
I'm sure my anticipatory anxiety was overblown, ouch, bad adjective. Don't wanna think about overbloooooooown!
Hah and hugs,
Hops
sKePTiKal:
S'OK Hops. I've been talking lots of people off ledges this week. LOL....
The track of the storm as it comes up the mountains - takes it WEST of the mountains. By Monday, they're predicting it'll be around Wheeling. Everything east of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge will just be rain; no wind to speak of. And even if changes track again and comes up the east side - most of the wind will blown out of it by then. "Breezy" - normal windy conditions - are what you can expect.
The intensity has dropped to a Cat 2 now, as well - as it usually does when it's in shallower coastal waters and interacting with land mass, and land driven weather systems.
But if the tree worries you off/on, I'd start setting aside a little $$$ to get it at least trimmed back, if not removed altogether.
I've already removed 4-5 trees that bothered me (or would grow into trees that would bother me in the future) because of the potential for forest fire. That also reduces the chance of them falling on the house. With my hills, they're going to tend to fall downhill... regardless of wind direction... and I have a consulting forester and pro tree team on speed dial. LOL. I did notice one that might fall across my road that I might have to call my redneck "army" to deal with it if it does fall across the road... but the fact is, I seldom have any real "NEED" to go anywhere that can't be rescheduled or managed some other way. And since I don't pester my guys for every little thing around here - they're usually pretty responsive.
Hopalong:
I'm glad no downward-tilting trees above your house are a threat to it. It's no fun when they fall but if they're far back enough you'd just need to worry about removal, rather than house-squashing, that's a good thing.
I had it well trimmed twice since moving here (once last year) so it's in as good shape as it can be. I just may have to make the tough choice regardless of this particular storm, if the increasing fierce storms pattern continues. Which of course it will now that the climate is warming and we're instead doing clever things like legislating how to keep cars dirty longer, release methane into the atmosphere and bring back coal... Because it would be terrible to tax on carbon, gosh why do anything like that?
Rant.
xo
Hops
Hopalong:
I'd think of trimming back, but it is literally 24" from the back wall of the house, and it's about 150' tall and farther around than I can hug. So I think more trimming of the branches/crown way up there won't do much--I've had that done twice in six years, including last year, by good arborists. Plus, had them treat it with horticultural oil for its *gloomy scale. That trunk would be a crusher, can't trim that.
I'm no longer fearing it for this storm but it's been good to think about it. Read somewhere that Florence is a rarity but hmmmmm....really?
Time to get a move on.
*What Hops wants to die of, because how could a poet die of anything better? :lol: Maybe there'd be bonus poetry in being squashed by a tree that has a case of it...
xxoo
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