Well, after diving into the long, arduous, DRY research into what is going on business-wise... I have a whole 'nother perspective on the virus situation.
The confusion you've all been talking about re: the virus has seriously impacted business activity. The reality of it is, that business activity - manufacturing is what I primarily looked at - has contracted so severely (~ 30-50% across the board, globally) that just like dominos toppling... there are going to be future impacts for an unknown amount of time. Our sales reflect that too. SO far, the cottage industry level is hanging on... and hasn't been significantly affected. But that's because instead of replacing equipment or tools that break, people are seeking out someone who can weld them back together again. Catepillar's sales are down 20-30% this year. That is a LOT of money people. And it's just one company. We know the automakers are down too; by a lot. That will impact steel - which was just beginning to get restarted domestically with projects still on the drawing board and in the permitting process (which takes about 5 years). For example.
My take on all that is we're in an undefined duration global economic contraction. That means fewer pieces of the pie to go around - and that would be at all levels; for everyone; eventually. Like a wave - like the virus even - the impacts are felt here; then there; and then way over there. And there were some serious issues in the economy and fiscal management by governments already weakening the ability of economies to withstand something like this. The shrinking of business activity will impact tax revenues for governments, eventually. And those with a high level of debt/deficit already are going to have to go into serious budget-cutting mode - or default on their debt obligations. I can't begin to imagine what that does to the geo-political landscape if it gets that bad. (Remains to be seen if it will; but this is the cause/effect chain. I still believe in the rare unexpected miracle, however.)
So, more uncertainty and not a pretty picture. But I HAVE to face reality and be as clear as possible about the situation even with so many uncertain variables in it... in order to make informed (to the best of what's available to me) decisions. Fortunately, I don't own a restaurant. I feel terrible for those people who have just lost their business due to all this. Even in good times, it's grueling hard work and the profit margins are slim.
My business is going to hunker down and try to survive. I have no idea if that's the right call - but things aren't past the point of no return for us YET and we DO have some options to implement when/if the sales picture deteriorates any more, before even considering laying anyone off... or locking the doors. I believe it's already too late to try to sell; there wouldn't be any buyers at the moment or in the foreseeable future... AND that is the least favorite of all the options. For a number of reasons.
So that's not exactly "trending" news on Twitter - but it is a reality for everyone. And even if it is gloomy, it's better to know that's the situation far enough in advance, so you can take appropriate steps to face it, as best one can. Everyone's in a different situation and will do different things to adjust & adapt.
I'm not freaking out here. I am not able to control the geo-econ-political environment we're in. But I sure can control how I react, respond, and deal with it. But I AM very concerned... and now I'm going to pay closer attention to certain things. But it's not the "daily dose of outrage, hype/fearmongering, or political posturing". That stuff serves absolutely no useful purpose in a situation like this.
Except to allow people to deny the reality of the situation. Thanks no, not for me.
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My state apparently got an A, for how the virus situation was managed. But I think a lot of the criteria is based on actual cases/deaths reported in that scale. We're a lower population state, with few big cities - and a lot of space between us all. We have not yet (it's been a couple days since I looked) hit 100 deaths in the state from the virus. People work more outdoors than in, here. And we don't socialize in large groups indoors. Churches would see the biggest group.
So, isolation remains one of the more effective preventions of infection, in my way of thinking. And despite the mask controversy over effectiveness - the more masks worn, the lower probability of virus-infected droplets spreading - ie, DISTANCE.
There is an ER doc on one of my other boards; his state was hard hit with cases a month ago. And what he saw was a number of critical hospitalized YOUNG people - in the 20-45 age group; many of whom were previously quite heatlhy. No underlying conditions, in other words.
I won't speculate - much - on what that all means. But I don't really like where my analytical brain goes as a result. As far as I'm concerned we don't know any more about this for sure, than we did in March/April. I'm sticking strictly the smaller set of things we KNOW; whether we like 'em or not...
and staying grateful for the fact that I'm one of those who can easily adapt to being a hermit. Who knew it would be so useful?
Perhaps in 6 months, all this will be past tense, the virus will burn itself out and things will look better. So many strange - not in my lifetime things - happening, that I'm not going to be surprised by much any more.
