Coronavirus

[lighter]

DD18 feels the same about wearing masks, tupp.  She feels safer, less vulnerable...... she's OK with wearing them without end.

Lighter

[Twoapenny]

DD18 feels the same about wearing masks, tupp.  She feels safer, less vulnerable...... she's OK with wearing them without end.

Lighter

I've definitely preferred it, Lighter, even regardless of infection risk - I've just not been hassled as much when I'm out?  Definitely prefer it.

Son had his second jab today, very relieved and the clinic is at the beach so we had an ice cream afterwards and went for a walk.  He seems fine, no sign of a reaction yet.  The medical experts are concerned that we're already in a third wave; the Delta variant is more infectious it seems and numbers are climbing quickly.  There are concerns that protection from the Delta variant is far less effective three months after inoculation - which could mean all the vulnerable people becoming more vulnerable again.  There's nothing to do but wait and see but I really would like to see an end to it all now.

[Twoapenny]

The blooming virus   Case numbers are rising quickly, the number in hospital is going up, the death rate is rising.  Still nowhere near the numbers it was earlier in the year but given that we are still officially locked down at the minute it feels like this is all going the wrong way.  As far as I know all front line workers and vulnerable adults have had both jabs now so whether hospital numbers are all people who've not had the jab yet (presumably younger?) or whether these are the numbers you'll see in hospital even with vaccinations I don't know.  I really wish it would go away though, it still feels like comparative safety is a long way off x

[lighter]

You're safe, ((Tupp.))

You've kept yourself and DS safe through the worst of this.  You know how.

When things open back up, when the numbers are down you'll have a better idea about what you want from the world.  I have every confidence you'll speak up and ask for more.

Lighter

[Hopalong]

I'm glad you're so rational and remaining very cautious, Tupp. It will blow through but the Delta variant is a new, dangerous wrinkle. Doesn't call for anything different behaviorally than the first Covid-19 did, but will as usual mean a population is variable in how quickly they comprehend it and pivot back.

Our famous Dr. Fauci did an interview about this variant on PBS yesterday, and he contrasted where the U.S. is as compared to the U.K. You're in a worse position right now, because the Delta variant (much more contagious and destructive) is something like 80% of new infections there at the moment, as opposed to about 10% here. (The latter will ramp up quickly, I'm sure.)

I think we in the U.S. may have a fairly-golden, fairly-free summer, but when the Delta variant begins to rip through the unvaccinated, there'll be a lot more and more serious cases coming. Maybe it'll be a slow roll over another whole year, or maybe a fast steep surge. Either way, I'm glad we all know how to hunker down if we have to fully quarantine again.

I'm already pondering booster shots, and hoping those are scheduled out SOON. (Some predicted they'd be needed in anywhere from 3 to six months, but I doubt they can coordinate it all that fast.) The Pfizer is about 95% protective against original Covid-19, but against the Delta variant, that drops to high-80%s. As of now they just say, it works against the variants and you're safe. But to me a number is a number and as Delta comes on, I'm not going to dance around assuming it's total armor.

The spanner in the works is that although they're tracking and evaluating data as fast as they can (heroically, imo), our scientists can't make steel promises. And we'd be silly to demand them. I've just simplified it to:
--I'll continue masking indoors in public (for others' sake if not my own)
--I'll go maskless outdoors in public unless it's a crowded space
--I'll continue to avoid uncessary shopping and pass on indoor restaurants

I'm sure enjoying this current relief from the fear here and hope the variant won't be derailing everything back to starting position. But we know what we're dealing with now, an aerosolized respiratory threat. It'll be not easy but simpler to do another round of cautions if we need to.

Would be nice if all citizens felt motivated to come together with science but given the divisions, we have gone farther than I'd dared to hope. I really hope it evens out ASAP in the U.K., too.

hugs
Hops

[Twoapenny]

Thank you both.  I just feel tired at having to manage the extra risk constantly, and having to judge which is the bigger risk - catching something or mostly staying home.  As I understand it here (Hopsie, you can jump in if I've got any of this wrong, you understand all of this better than I do) is that Astra Zeneca, which is what son and I have both had, gives approx 60% to 90% protection against hospitalisation depending on which report you read.  90% makes me feel pretty safe, 60% is only a bit better than 50/50 and I'm not keen on that.  I think, if I've understood it correctly, that high vaccination is needed to stop new mutations can just get rid of it overall, because the vaccine response weakens the virus and makes it (a) die out and (b) stop changing into new mutations.  Is that right?  And as I understand it this needs to be global, because people will pick it up in other countries and keep spreading it around otherwise.  I'm concerned that numbers are rising so fast.  Even with a lower death rate, the hospitals can't manage their normal workload and a highly infectious virus and there are already long waiting lists because they've had to stop so many other treatments and surgeries while all of this is going on.  Everyone's sick of all of it, no-one wants to lock down again and I can understand that.  So many businesses have gone under.  I'm doing the same as you, Hopsie, we're only indoors for cinema and library, both of which are easy to keep distance from people (plus masks), shops are for essentials only, I go as early in the day as possible and grab what I need and go, ditto the bus.  It's easier being outside at the mo as it's summer so I'm really hoping they've got on top of it before winter sets in again.

[Hopalong]

I don't understand how mutations work, but think you've got it right: "high vaccination is needed, etc..." That's what herd immunity would be, I believe.
This comparison includes AstraZeneca but does not include the Delta variant.
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison

Oxford-AstraZeneca

This vaccine, which is currently being distributed in the United Kingdom and other countries, is distinguished from some of its competitors by its lower cost—it’s cheaper to make per dose, and it can be stored, transported, and handled in normal refrigeration for at least six months. Some countries temporarily suspended use of this vaccine in March after a small number of recipients developed blood clots. In April, a European Medicines Agency (EMA) safety committee concluded "unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects" that could occur within two weeks of receiving the vaccine. While the U.K. called for further investigation, EMA regulators stressed that the benefits of the vaccine still outweigh the risks.

Status: Not available in the U.S., authorized for use in the European Union (under the name Vaxzevria).

Recommended for: Adults 18 and older

Dosage: Two doses, four to 12 weeks apart

Common side effects: Tenderness, pain, warmth, redness, itching, swelling or bruising at the injection site, all of which generally resolve within a day or two.

How it works: Similar to the Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, this is a carrier vaccine, made from a modified version of a harmless adenovirus. The final product contains the spike protein found in SARS-CoV-2. When that protein reaches the body’s cells, the immune system mounts a defense, creating antibodies and memory cells to protect against an actual SARS-Cov2 infection.

How well it works: AstraZeneca updated its data analysis of its phase 3 trials in March, showing its vaccine to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease 15 days or more after receiving the two doses, and 100% against severe disease. The company also said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing COVID-19 in people over 65. The company’s update came a few days after the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) expressed concern over new data AstraZeneca had submitted in advance of requesting an EUA from the FDA. The NIAID said that data may have included outdated information, which would make its efficacy data incomplete. 

How well it works on virus mutations: So far it seems to work better against Alpha variant than the Beta variant. A paper in early February (not yet peer-reviewed) cited 74.6% efficacy against the Alpha variant. However, the vaccine did not protect as well against mild and moderate cases in people infected with the Beta variant. Therefore, South Africa halted its rollout while scientists continue to study whether the vaccine can prevent severe illness and death in people infected with this variant.

[Hopalong]

Given my age and conditioning, and the Delta variant building, I'm going to maintain public masking, period. And likely continue to have groceries delivered. It's just not more important to me to do "normal" than it is to skip getting infected entirely.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/the-covid-delta-variant-how-effective-are-the-vaccines

[Hopalong]

Very clear, and very sad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/20/us-coronavirus-infection-rate-fall-2021/

[Twoapenny]

Well the most recent report here is suggesting that the vaccines are 95% effective against death with regard to the Delta variant, which is good news.  Local cases have quadrupled in the last two weeks, but there hasn't been a recorded death here for a month (in our area).  Nationally, infections are increasing daily but, so far, hospitals aren't being swamped with Covid cases and the death rate is remaining relatively low.  I guess the best we can hope for is fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths, given that it doesn't seem to be possible to stop it spreading altogether xx

[Hopalong]

New concern about whether the vaccinated are actually protected against the Delta variant...(It was Israel that spotted the heart stuff, so I'm paying attention!).
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19-delta-infecting-vaccinated-in-israel_n_60d6661ce4b066ff5aba8faa?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation

I think full lockdown and a terrible rise in Covid (Delta) are on their widespread way, unfortunately. I so wish the whole world would just roll up its sleeves immediately and get the jabs as soon as they're available.

Tragic what's about to hit in fall, I'm thinking. I'm glad many had a year to practice quarantining, because the vaccine plus masking and distancing are the only things that keep us safe when it's on the rise.

Just heard on the news that the Delta variant is 100% more transmissable (and a lot more severe) than "original" Covid and that basically all Covid cases now are among the unvaccinated. I cannot imagine what it'll be like when Delta explodes if people don't make the choice...they also said we have two weeks here before the Delta is the dominant strain in the U.S. TWO WEEKS.

Sighs and hugs,
Hops

[Twoapenny]

It's interesting how the information is different on each side of the pond, over here we've been told from the outset that being vaccinated won't stop you catching it and only reduces your chances of being seriously ill from it.  About a third of current deaths here are in vaccinated people - I read something yesterday that said basically if you're 80 and vaccinated then your risk from catching it is about the same as an unvaccinated 50 year old.  I've not found data yet on how people with learning disabilities are doing now they've been vaccinated; I'd like to see some info about that but I haven't been brave enough to venture on to Twitter to hunt it down We're just carrying on with masks and distance as much as possible.

[Hopalong]

Sure is different.
I'd love to see that article saying vaxxed 80 y/o's are as protected as unvaxxed 50's. Oy. Defenintely not the vax message I've taken in so far.
I think there's a lot of denial here. Both of how different/dangerous the Delta is, and of how the vax does save lives of course--but it's not perfect protection and therefore skipping around going la la la it's all over let's French kiss might not be the best reaction. Oh, humans! Americans seem to deal more in absolutes, I think, or black and white thinking.

I'm with you, hunker down and heads up.

hugs
Hops

[Twoapenny]

It's this one, Hopsie, the age bit is about half way down:

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

It is all very confusing, but then I suppose the situation is changing almost daily and there is an overlap between fact and opinion and/or best guess kind of information.  What I've taken it all to mean is that our risk factor is lower, but it's still there (and I still don't fancy catching it however low the risk is!) xx

[Hopalong]

Yup, more nuance.
Although the stat does include that 40% of them only had one jab...sheesh. Though it was specific to the U.K. it's probably going to be the same outcome here.

Yup, it's just not black and white. Dangerous virus out there so behaviors are the greatest protection for all. If we just don't physically breathe it in, that's safety. (Hard to do in cities and crowded areas, but hooray masks.)

I still have a stash of the unbreathable N-95s and loads of the simple ones, so I'll make sure I keep both on hand.

Still enjoying this golden summer of freedom and outdoors and hugs in fully-vaccinated small gatherings -- the threat of the Delta makes in poignantly sweeter.

Thanks, Tupp...I love the Guardian but this one didn't pop up in the US edition today.

hugs
Hops