Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 3005 times)

Hopalong

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #255 on: July 08, 2020, 11:46:29 PM »
Another very helpful chart, much appreciated when gov'ts have such difficulty conveying decision criteria with consistency!

http://www.ezekielemanuel.com/writing/all-articles/2020/06/30/covid-19-activity-risk-levels?fbclid=IwAR2oNoUnjxrHjC1jrWUUYaBybVpYK4cOJuzLBEchi6PtIv4LpsgWxOSmx4o
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Twoapenny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #256 on: July 10, 2020, 02:23:56 PM »
That is handy, Hops, we can easily stick to green activities so that's good :)

Things here don't make sense.  We've got (apparently) rising numbers in 108 places across England, with one country back in total lockdown and six pubs closed since Saturday for deep cleaning after someone tested positive in each one.  We also had today one of the lowest death counts we've had so far and a lower number of diagnosed cases as well.  It just doesn't make sense to me.

Hopalong

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #257 on: July 10, 2020, 08:34:39 PM »
I know. For the average-educated person, the numbers can't be woven. Even for the above-average, highly logical person like you, they still can't be woven. I think the only thing we can weave is the covering of our own common sense, and reasonable responses to evidence we are seeing/hearing from scientists.

It's very weird to feel we're on our own in decision making. But that's one reason I so liked that chart. It's concrete and pragmatic. Doesn't solve the long-term worries but certainly makes it easier to negotiate the next day/week/month with some of the best info (summarized) I've seen.

I'm just not trying to make sense of individual or anecdotal reports, because it's a novel virus that's caught both our governments flat-footed, and I frankly think informed citizens like yourself, or others who think and read outside politics, are among the best prepared. We can just face the facts we DO have, and make our best decisions. Our governments will keep parsing and explaining several beats behind the emergency, imo, so our best security is really from trusting our own good minds.

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Hops
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Twoapenny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #258 on: July 11, 2020, 03:01:29 AM »
I think you're right, Hopsie.  Son and I are lucky that we can basically sit this out - although oddly I feel guilty about that.  Grateful as well, but I feel bad for others who can't.  It is a little tricky because the news reports are all about things opening up again - son reads all of that.  I still don't feel it's safe but I don't want to labour the point with him that I think the news is inaccurate (because he's taking so much pleasure from the positive statements).  So I'm just fibbing a bit or avoiding the issue, which I don't like to do.  But I suppose it's needs must at the moment.  I just notice contradictions when I read them and I like things to balance properly.  Lol xx

Twoapenny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #259 on: July 17, 2020, 01:54:45 AM »
A team of science people from Oxford have released a paper (not peer reviewed yet) stating that they think T cells may be playing a role in some people having better immunity to Covid (asymptomatic, mild cases, severe cases but recovering well) and that herd immunity may be possible with 20% of the population having immunity.  There is a cancer doctor in the UK who has been saying all the way through this that he thinks T cells may play a part.  He's also been found to falsely link himself to a University in the past and there was something shady about a paper he published at one time, I think.  It's very difficult; people can be dishonest and still be good at their jobs, but it means that it's difficult to trust their opinion or point of view.

I'm personally finding the fact that papers can publish information that hasn't been proved one way or the other (and I know this is happening globally; little bits of information from various studies, much of it not formalised) really disconcerting.  The opinion from many has been that herd immunity may not be achievable anyway, because the anti-bodies don't seem to linger for long.  80% was also touted as the magic number needed at the beginning as well.  People are confused and fed up with being confused, I think.  We are in a bizarre situation here where people can go to the pub and meet with strangers but are still not supposed to just be visiting friends and family in their homes (you can do it in a bubble if both households aren't going anywhere else but as almost everyone is at the very least going to the supermarket that makes it virtually impossible).  Most people I know are listening to the advice coming from Scotland rather than from the English PM.  Sturgeon has done a much better job of handling this and their death rate has been zero for a week now, I think.

I did read that one of the big hospitals in our county hasn't had a Covid death for a fortnight now.  It should cheer me but my immediate thought was to wonder whether they're just sending them somewhere else or leaving them to die in care homes.  I feel sad that I can't trust any of the information given out now.

Hopalong

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #260 on: July 17, 2020, 02:49:17 AM »
I hear you, Tupp. It IS sad.
Only thing I can bear is my tiny circle, being kind, and staying home.
It'll be harder before it gets easier, and nobody know for how long.
(I saw Tom Hanks explaining that although he's donated plasma twice, he's been told his antibiodies are dropping now too. He did a great brief riff about all the questions we still have about the virus and how the honest scientific answers are: We don't know. Maybe. That could be. We're not sure.)

It's not for lack of scientific trying, and there's certainly hope out there too. I just don't try to personally understand the ramifications of this development or that one. My pea-brain gets what my local health region daily charts are showing, and in our area it's a long original curve that is now rising faster than before. First wave. So that simplifies my choices a lot. (I'm sad I'll no longer be able to go back and forth to M's, because that had been my positive strategy for winter.)

The big picture is just TOO big to take on right now (but I don't have an orderly, logical mind as you do...I can understand why you follow developments so closely and seek more order amid the confusion.)

I just finished Mary Trump's book about the Donald, and her take as a psychologist as well as a family member is so penetrating. What a story. I wasn't very interested in the business bits, but her snaps of family drama, naricissm, sociopathy, traumatized children, dialogues and especially her closing chapter about how his deeply damaged personality has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and exactly WHY: the direct link between his terrible combination of personality flaws and amorality and especially, his running on fear...were amazing. Plus, the bits about his enablers and entire party.

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Hops
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Twoapenny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #261 on: July 17, 2020, 04:56:09 AM »
Gosh that sounds like a scary but interesting book, Hops.  I'm astonished that there's a psychologist in the family.  I expect she often eats alone.  Lol.

Yes, I'm worried that my distrust levels have gone to the paranoid state now.  The 'possible herd immunity' article is printed in a paper that's traditionally Conservative and was followed by an article stating that people are not going out and spending, despite the pubs and shops being open now, and if they don't, the economy won't recover.  So my immediate thought is that the herd immunity one is to reassure people it's safe to go out and do you know what, however much the papers are doing and whatever is going on online, for the first time in a long time what I'm hearing people talk about in the actual world is different to what the papers are doing and saying.  There's a massive distrust in the government from all sides.  Those who think the whole thing has been blown out of proportion are angry that they've locked down at all and don't trust them and those of us who think the situation is every bit as bad as it seems to be don't feel we're being given accurate information and so are continuing to take precautions.  So they've really caused problems in every sector.  They've managed a high death rate and a wrecked economy, whilst at the same time managing to piss off just about everybody.  Early on lots of people were still supportive of them and saying, "well, it's a tough call, who could have done better".  But as time's gone on it's become apparent that almost every other leader on the planet could have done better, with one or two obvious exceptions.

Sigh.  Son and I will continue to stay home, do our short walks and socially distanced coffees, and save our money for moving.  The saving grace we do have is that we're pretty far from any major cities where I am so anything that's happening tends to start a good long distance away from us.  That at least means you tend to hear about what's happening in advance so I'm grateful for that.

Hopalong

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #262 on: July 17, 2020, 10:04:35 AM »
I hear you, Tupp.

I'd just listen to scientists such as medical experts/epidemiologists right now.
Not political media. Or not pandemic stories IN political media that report mainly about people's emotions and/or political/irrational responses, to sell more media.

If one's doing the rational/right things to avoid infection, which you are....you are pretty much doing all you can do. Maybe time to go back on a news diet? Beware feeding the fear furnace. Paranoia is both reasonable and dangerous. With paranoia or without it, one either gets infected or one doesn't get infected. But paranoia makes it all worse. Or you could go all Heller (if you'd enjoy reading it again):

Quote
“There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.

"That's some catch, that Catch-22," he observed.

"It's the best there is," Doc Daneeka agreed.”
― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

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Hops
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CB123

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #263 on: July 17, 2020, 10:57:45 AM »
I get so much good info about the scientific process from my daughter who is a researcher in biology. She is doing work in immunology, but not directly with covid. Interestingly, there is such a need for covid work, a lot of researchers have had their work shifted in the last few months to address that. So--competent researchers but a new angle for them, and of course they aren't their own bosses.

Also the process of producing a paper is being sped up over the usual such research. So the kind of time you would normally give to the process isn't there, nor is the lengthy peer review process that keeps a lot of work out of the limelight for a long time, and some never seeing the light of day at all from a layman's perspective. There have been a couple of projects that have been published in legit medical journals that got pulled AFTER the fact which was really disconcerting to me, but my daughter said its because of the way they are having to move much faster than they normally would.

Also Covid is in the same general category as the common cold, and because there are so many versions of those and most people weather them a couple times a year with no problem at all, there has been little research devoted to coronavirus cures. And this particular one is behaving very oddly, as such viruses go.

It's all very interesting if you look at it from that angle, and for me, so is the political response. On one level I am worried and also deeply offended by the government response, on another level I am kind of fascinated by watching history unfold as I watch it. I can't even imagine going on a news diet and end up reading about it in history books some day instead! I feel as though I do have a constantly fine tuned list of sources that I get my information from, and usually its a combination. What's really stunning is the kind of things that people latch onto--many of them are people that I was very close to at one time. It's deeply disturbing.

There's someone I read quite a bit of who does a daily synopsis of the news. She's a history professor and just seems to present and write in a style that suits me. She has a weekly youtube lecture and is going through American history from the time of the Reconstruction, and although it is completely separate from her daily synopses, the parallels are there and I am fascinated. I studied just enough American history to qualify for my degree program--my interest was European medieval history and this is like uncharted territory for me. I'm really loving it alongside what is going on currently because it both gives insight into the American political process and also gives a sense that we have been here before. It makes it all feel much more fluid and evolving as a basic characteristic. She is talking about the 1920's this week and I am dumbfounded at the parallels between then and now.

CB
When they are older and telling their own children about their grandmother, they will be able to say that she stood in the storm, and when the wind did not blow her way -- and it surely has not -- she adjusted her sails.  Elizabeth Edwards 2010

Twoapenny

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #264 on: July 17, 2020, 04:50:07 PM »
That's interesting to read, CB, the paper that's just been released here is about a theory (it's unproven yet; as you say, info's coming out fast) but the theory is that some people already have some degree of immunity due to their T cells (and apparently T cells are different to antibodies?  So they think that some people aren't catching it and/or are getting it mildly because their T cells are fighting the good fight).  And part of the theory around that is that Covid is part of the common cold family so, as you say, most people get colds every year so they're thinking that some people have built up an immunity.  Off the back of that they think that the virus can just die out if it runs out of people to infect (I think that was the gist of it; the whole thing is way over my head but Twitter doctors have been deciphering sections).  It would be a possible answer to my previous pondering over why we haven't seen big jumps after the BLM protests, huge beach gatherings, busy pubs and so on.  On the flip side of that, the Government have announced that the death figures haven't been accurate and they're not releasing daily figures until a review's been carried out.  No-one trusts them, god knows what they'll come back with and what their end game is.  This is what bothers me so much about the lack of accurate information - we're in an age when it's never been easier to get information and share it, yet there's such a lack of ethics it's impossible to figure out who's doing what and why.

I hear you about the news Hopsie but I'm only reading the Twitter people's stuff (science and medical) and then a quick scroll through the mainstream press to look for good news for son (he likes some sort of positive story each day, even if it's just someone buying someone a sandwich or something).  I don't watch or listen to it and I am of the mindset that we're doing all we can personally and we can't do any more of that, but I do find it all interesting?  But also sometimes frustrating and scary :) xx

Hopalong

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #265 on: July 17, 2020, 07:36:17 PM »
Completely understand, Tupp. Why not follow along? I know everybody figures out their own "right level" with the news and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, I think this would be Very Helpful (still debating but I just may!):
https://www.afar.com/magazine/iceland-invites-the-world-to-scream-it-out

And this is for your son--I know there are better collections out there but I bookmarked this one and one or more of them do give me a lift every morning:
https://www.inspiremore.com

(My current fav: Seriously, random shoppers--pre virus, it seems--just broke out with this! He heard her humming...and look what happened. Made me MELT:
https://youtu.be/D3XxmO_CJ-M)

Sending him a big auntie-Yank hug and/or smooch, whichever he can manage!

hugs
Hops
« Last Edit: July 17, 2020, 08:00:31 PM by Hopalong »
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CB123

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #266 on: July 17, 2020, 08:48:30 PM »
Ha! Just ran across the scream in Iceland post, too! Daughter and I agreed that we are definitely ready for that experience

CB
When they are older and telling their own children about their grandmother, they will be able to say that she stood in the storm, and when the wind did not blow her way -- and it surely has not -- she adjusted her sails.  Elizabeth Edwards 2010

lighter

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #267 on: July 18, 2020, 07:13:13 PM »
I really missed you on the board, CB.

So glad you're back.

Lighter

CB123

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #268 on: July 19, 2020, 09:55:36 AM »
Awww Lighter...Thanks!

CB
When they are older and telling their own children about their grandmother, they will be able to say that she stood in the storm, and when the wind did not blow her way -- and it surely has not -- she adjusted her sails.  Elizabeth Edwards 2010

sKePTiKal

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #269 on: July 19, 2020, 11:50:48 AM »
Well, after diving into the long, arduous, DRY research into what is going on business-wise... I have a whole 'nother perspective on the virus situation.

The confusion you've all been talking about re: the virus has seriously impacted business activity. The reality of it is, that business activity - manufacturing is what I primarily looked at - has contracted so severely (~ 30-50% across the board, globally) that just like dominos toppling... there are going to be future impacts for an unknown amount of time. Our sales reflect that too. SO far, the cottage industry level is hanging on... and hasn't been significantly affected. But that's because instead of replacing equipment or tools that break, people are seeking out someone who can weld them back together again. Catepillar's sales are down 20-30% this year. That is a LOT of money people. And it's just one company. We know the automakers are down too; by a lot. That will impact steel - which was just beginning to get restarted domestically with projects still on the drawing board and in the permitting process (which takes about 5 years). For example.

My take on all that is we're in an undefined duration global economic contraction. That means fewer pieces of the pie to go around - and that would be at all levels; for everyone; eventually. Like a wave - like the virus even - the impacts are felt here; then there; and then way over there. And there were some serious issues in the economy and fiscal management by governments already weakening the ability of economies to withstand something like this. The shrinking of business activity will impact tax revenues for governments, eventually. And those with a high level of debt/deficit already are going to have to go into serious budget-cutting mode - or default on their debt obligations. I can't begin to imagine what that does to the geo-political landscape if it gets that bad. (Remains to be seen if it will; but this is the cause/effect chain. I still believe in the rare unexpected miracle, however.)

So, more uncertainty and not a pretty picture. But I HAVE to face reality and be as clear as possible about the situation even with so many uncertain variables in it... in order to make informed (to the best of what's available to me) decisions. Fortunately, I don't own a restaurant. I feel terrible for those people who have just lost their business due to all this. Even in good times, it's grueling hard work and the profit margins are slim.

My business is going to hunker down and try to survive. I have no idea if that's the right call - but things aren't past the point of no return for us YET and we DO have some options to implement when/if the sales picture deteriorates any more, before even considering laying anyone off... or locking the doors. I believe it's already too late to try to sell; there wouldn't be any buyers at the moment or in the foreseeable future... AND that is the least favorite of all the options. For a number of reasons.

So that's not exactly "trending" news on Twitter - but it is a reality for everyone. And even if it is gloomy, it's better to know that's the situation far enough in advance, so you can take appropriate steps to face it, as best one can. Everyone's in a different situation and will do different things to adjust & adapt.

I'm not freaking out here. I am not able to control the geo-econ-political environment we're in. But I sure can control how I react, respond, and deal with it. But I AM very concerned... and now I'm going to pay closer attention to certain things. But it's not the "daily dose of outrage, hype/fearmongering, or political posturing". That stuff serves absolutely no useful purpose in a situation like this.

Except to allow people to deny the reality of the situation. Thanks no, not for me.
--------------------

My state apparently got an A, for how the virus situation was managed. But I think a lot of the criteria is based on actual cases/deaths reported in that scale. We're a lower population state, with few big cities - and a lot of space between us all. We have not yet (it's been a couple days since I looked) hit 100 deaths in the state from the virus. People work more outdoors than in, here. And we don't socialize in large groups indoors. Churches would see the biggest group.

So, isolation remains one of the more effective preventions of infection, in my way of thinking. And despite the mask controversy over effectiveness - the more masks worn, the lower probability of virus-infected droplets spreading - ie, DISTANCE.

There is an ER doc on one of my other boards; his state was hard hit with cases a month ago. And what he saw was a number of critical hospitalized YOUNG people - in the 20-45 age group; many of whom were previously quite heatlhy. No underlying conditions, in other words.

I won't speculate - much - on what that all means. But I don't really like where my analytical brain goes as a result. As far as I'm concerned we don't know any more about this for sure, than we did in March/April. I'm sticking strictly the smaller set of things we KNOW; whether we like 'em or not...

and staying grateful for the fact that I'm one of those who can easily adapt to being a hermit. Who knew it would be so useful?

Perhaps in 6 months, all this will be past tense, the virus will burn itself out and things will look better. So many strange - not in my lifetime things - happening, that I'm not going to be surprised by much any more.
Success is never final, failure is never fatal.