Coronavirus

[Twoapenny]

Glad you've had your jabs, Lighter.  I've had both of my shots, son's still waiting for his second.  Hopefully not long now.

It seems to be a bit of a mixed bag here at the moment.  Cases, numbers in hospitals and deaths are going up, but slowly and it's nothing like the situation it was at the beginning of the year.  I think for us, personally, the worst has passed, although we are still being very cautious and the only indoor activity we're partaking in is the cinema, which is kept very clean and has very strict rules and one way systems in place.  The Indian variant seems to have taken a few who've been fully vaccinated but that said, none of the vaccines are 100% effective anyway so it's hard to know whether it's that particular variant getting past it or if it's more that that's the one most people are getting at the moment.

I personally think what comes next is going to be the hardest.  Public sector services have buckled completely under the strain and there are huge backlogs now for healthcare, with many staff threatening to leave because of poor pay and poor conditions.  A lot of people have taken big financial hits and that's going to be a strain for many and the feeling of community that was there when it started seems to have gone.  Only time will tell, I guess.

[lighter]

I'm a little shocked at people gathering without masks...... not using them in public buldings...... just going back to normal, like everything is over here. 

I suspect it's the anti vaccers not wearing masks, btw.  The ones still wearing masks are likely those with vaccines and awareness it's not over.  Yet.

I still wear my mask indoors, for instsance.   

I'm not worrying all the time about it, but then.... I try to be careful.  Do what I can.  Not be stupid.  Just get on with my day. 

I'm glad your cinema feels safe to you. 

Hopefully you'll have a vehicle soon so you can get around and do more again, particularly since you and ds will be fully vacced soon.

Lighter

[Twoapenny]

Masks are still mandatory inside public buildings and on public transport at the moment over here, Lighter.  June 21st was supposed to be the day all restrictions were lifted but case numbers are rising again and so are the numbers of people in the hospital.  The death rate is still quite low.  Personally I wouldn't feel confident about restrictions easing just now and if they do lift them completely, I think we'll be staying home a lot for at least another couple of months while we wait to see what happens.  Son is getting his second jab next week so I'm hoping for a couple of quiet days at home after than just in case he reacts to it and then fingers crossed, getting a little car.  At least that will mean we can get out to some nice quiet places without too many people around for walks and picnics xx

[lighter]

You sound pretty solid, Tupp.

Things are returning to normal for us.  Depending where we are, people wear or don't wear masks.  I'm usually wearing a mask, but sometimes I just get too hot, can't think and pull it down when others aren't wearing theirs.  If they are, I suck it up and wear mine.

I feel more solid in our ability to fight the virus/have a better outcome if we get it, bc we're been immunized.  I don't feel it's going to keep us from getting it.  There's less fear.  More normalcy.

Lighter

[Twoapenny]

I don't know if they're using different ones in different countries.  All of the ones they're using here, as far as I'm aware, definitely don't stop you catching it or passing it on, they just reduce your chances of being seriously ill if you catch it.  They've only been tested on fit and healthy people with well functioning immune systems so I'm still taking the view that it might not offer enough protection for those of us whose circumstances are different and being very careful.  Quite honestly I've preferred not being around people - I don't like busy places anyway and packed buses make me shudder even at the best of times.  I like the masks as well - I've not been told once to smile when I'm out and I hadn't realised how often that happens until it didn't happen?  It's funny, isn't it?  I might keep mine well after everything is over so that everyone thinks I'm highly infectious and keeps away from me   Lol xx

[lighter]

DD18 feels the same about wearing masks, tupp.  She feels safer, less vulnerable...... she's OK with wearing them without end.

Lighter

[Twoapenny]

DD18 feels the same about wearing masks, tupp.  She feels safer, less vulnerable...... she's OK with wearing them without end.

Lighter

I've definitely preferred it, Lighter, even regardless of infection risk - I've just not been hassled as much when I'm out?  Definitely prefer it.

Son had his second jab today, very relieved and the clinic is at the beach so we had an ice cream afterwards and went for a walk.  He seems fine, no sign of a reaction yet.  The medical experts are concerned that we're already in a third wave; the Delta variant is more infectious it seems and numbers are climbing quickly.  There are concerns that protection from the Delta variant is far less effective three months after inoculation - which could mean all the vulnerable people becoming more vulnerable again.  There's nothing to do but wait and see but I really would like to see an end to it all now.

[Twoapenny]

The blooming virus   Case numbers are rising quickly, the number in hospital is going up, the death rate is rising.  Still nowhere near the numbers it was earlier in the year but given that we are still officially locked down at the minute it feels like this is all going the wrong way.  As far as I know all front line workers and vulnerable adults have had both jabs now so whether hospital numbers are all people who've not had the jab yet (presumably younger?) or whether these are the numbers you'll see in hospital even with vaccinations I don't know.  I really wish it would go away though, it still feels like comparative safety is a long way off x

[lighter]

You're safe, ((Tupp.))

You've kept yourself and DS safe through the worst of this.  You know how.

When things open back up, when the numbers are down you'll have a better idea about what you want from the world.  I have every confidence you'll speak up and ask for more.

Lighter

[Hopalong]

I'm glad you're so rational and remaining very cautious, Tupp. It will blow through but the Delta variant is a new, dangerous wrinkle. Doesn't call for anything different behaviorally than the first Covid-19 did, but will as usual mean a population is variable in how quickly they comprehend it and pivot back.

Our famous Dr. Fauci did an interview about this variant on PBS yesterday, and he contrasted where the U.S. is as compared to the U.K. You're in a worse position right now, because the Delta variant (much more contagious and destructive) is something like 80% of new infections there at the moment, as opposed to about 10% here. (The latter will ramp up quickly, I'm sure.)

I think we in the U.S. may have a fairly-golden, fairly-free summer, but when the Delta variant begins to rip through the unvaccinated, there'll be a lot more and more serious cases coming. Maybe it'll be a slow roll over another whole year, or maybe a fast steep surge. Either way, I'm glad we all know how to hunker down if we have to fully quarantine again.

I'm already pondering booster shots, and hoping those are scheduled out SOON. (Some predicted they'd be needed in anywhere from 3 to six months, but I doubt they can coordinate it all that fast.) The Pfizer is about 95% protective against original Covid-19, but against the Delta variant, that drops to high-80%s. As of now they just say, it works against the variants and you're safe. But to me a number is a number and as Delta comes on, I'm not going to dance around assuming it's total armor.

The spanner in the works is that although they're tracking and evaluating data as fast as they can (heroically, imo), our scientists can't make steel promises. And we'd be silly to demand them. I've just simplified it to:
--I'll continue masking indoors in public (for others' sake if not my own)
--I'll go maskless outdoors in public unless it's a crowded space
--I'll continue to avoid uncessary shopping and pass on indoor restaurants

I'm sure enjoying this current relief from the fear here and hope the variant won't be derailing everything back to starting position. But we know what we're dealing with now, an aerosolized respiratory threat. It'll be not easy but simpler to do another round of cautions if we need to.

Would be nice if all citizens felt motivated to come together with science but given the divisions, we have gone farther than I'd dared to hope. I really hope it evens out ASAP in the U.K., too.

hugs
Hops

[Twoapenny]

Thank you both.  I just feel tired at having to manage the extra risk constantly, and having to judge which is the bigger risk - catching something or mostly staying home.  As I understand it here (Hopsie, you can jump in if I've got any of this wrong, you understand all of this better than I do) is that Astra Zeneca, which is what son and I have both had, gives approx 60% to 90% protection against hospitalisation depending on which report you read.  90% makes me feel pretty safe, 60% is only a bit better than 50/50 and I'm not keen on that.  I think, if I've understood it correctly, that high vaccination is needed to stop new mutations can just get rid of it overall, because the vaccine response weakens the virus and makes it (a) die out and (b) stop changing into new mutations.  Is that right?  And as I understand it this needs to be global, because people will pick it up in other countries and keep spreading it around otherwise.  I'm concerned that numbers are rising so fast.  Even with a lower death rate, the hospitals can't manage their normal workload and a highly infectious virus and there are already long waiting lists because they've had to stop so many other treatments and surgeries while all of this is going on.  Everyone's sick of all of it, no-one wants to lock down again and I can understand that.  So many businesses have gone under.  I'm doing the same as you, Hopsie, we're only indoors for cinema and library, both of which are easy to keep distance from people (plus masks), shops are for essentials only, I go as early in the day as possible and grab what I need and go, ditto the bus.  It's easier being outside at the mo as it's summer so I'm really hoping they've got on top of it before winter sets in again.

[Hopalong]

I don't understand how mutations work, but think you've got it right: "high vaccination is needed, etc..." That's what herd immunity would be, I believe.
This comparison includes AstraZeneca but does not include the Delta variant.
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-vaccine-comparison

Oxford-AstraZeneca

This vaccine, which is currently being distributed in the United Kingdom and other countries, is distinguished from some of its competitors by its lower cost—it’s cheaper to make per dose, and it can be stored, transported, and handled in normal refrigeration for at least six months. Some countries temporarily suspended use of this vaccine in March after a small number of recipients developed blood clots. In April, a European Medicines Agency (EMA) safety committee concluded "unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects" that could occur within two weeks of receiving the vaccine. While the U.K. called for further investigation, EMA regulators stressed that the benefits of the vaccine still outweigh the risks.

Status: Not available in the U.S., authorized for use in the European Union (under the name Vaxzevria).

Recommended for: Adults 18 and older

Dosage: Two doses, four to 12 weeks apart

Common side effects: Tenderness, pain, warmth, redness, itching, swelling or bruising at the injection site, all of which generally resolve within a day or two.

How it works: Similar to the Johnson & Johnson's vaccine, this is a carrier vaccine, made from a modified version of a harmless adenovirus. The final product contains the spike protein found in SARS-CoV-2. When that protein reaches the body’s cells, the immune system mounts a defense, creating antibodies and memory cells to protect against an actual SARS-Cov2 infection.

How well it works: AstraZeneca updated its data analysis of its phase 3 trials in March, showing its vaccine to be 76% effective at reducing the risk of symptomatic disease 15 days or more after receiving the two doses, and 100% against severe disease. The company also said the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing COVID-19 in people over 65. The company’s update came a few days after the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) expressed concern over new data AstraZeneca had submitted in advance of requesting an EUA from the FDA. The NIAID said that data may have included outdated information, which would make its efficacy data incomplete. 

How well it works on virus mutations: So far it seems to work better against Alpha variant than the Beta variant. A paper in early February (not yet peer-reviewed) cited 74.6% efficacy against the Alpha variant. However, the vaccine did not protect as well against mild and moderate cases in people infected with the Beta variant. Therefore, South Africa halted its rollout while scientists continue to study whether the vaccine can prevent severe illness and death in people infected with this variant.

[Hopalong]

Given my age and conditioning, and the Delta variant building, I'm going to maintain public masking, period. And likely continue to have groceries delivered. It's just not more important to me to do "normal" than it is to skip getting infected entirely.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/15/the-covid-delta-variant-how-effective-are-the-vaccines

[Hopalong]

Very clear, and very sad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/20/us-coronavirus-infection-rate-fall-2021/

[Twoapenny]

Well the most recent report here is suggesting that the vaccines are 95% effective against death with regard to the Delta variant, which is good news.  Local cases have quadrupled in the last two weeks, but there hasn't been a recorded death here for a month (in our area).  Nationally, infections are increasing daily but, so far, hospitals aren't being swamped with Covid cases and the death rate is remaining relatively low.  I guess the best we can hope for is fewer hospital admissions and fewer deaths, given that it doesn't seem to be possible to stop it spreading altogether xx